You ever see Dumb and Dumber?

Hopeless case Jim Carrey chases dreamboat Lauren Holly.

So You’re Telling me There’s a Chance?

Chelsea are Jim Carrey. It’s not looking good. But yes, I’m telling you there’s a chance. It’s not just delicious pie-in-the-sky. The elements are in place. However, everything will have to go just right. Here’s how.

It’s All In the Numbers

Chelsea have 16 games left. That’s 48 points. They currently have 38.  So their maximum potential tally is 86.

6 teams have won the Premier League with fewer than 86 points in the fifteen years of the 38-game schedule. 6 out of 15. A whopping 40%. The lowest total was United’s 75 points in 1996-97. The year before, Arsenal hoisted the trophy with just 78 points.

A Weaker Premier League

Most observers agree that the 2010-11 Premier League season is extremely unpredictable. The Big Four have morphed into the Rather Large Five with the addition of Spurs and City and the subtraction of Liverpool.

Why? Follow the money. United have an ownership debt, Chelsea are on an austerity drive, Arsenal have a stadium debt and Liverpool never made big money. Tottenham are smarter than they are rich. Only City are awash in money,

The result? The talent level is down in the Premier League. The playing field is more level. Thus we see an opportunity for the winning point total to be near its historic lows.

EPL table

A Friendly Schedule

Chelsea trail United by 7, City by 7 and Arsenal by 5.

* Chelsea have two games left against United, so that’s 6 points on the table. Against City they have a home game plus a game in hand, also 6 points. And they only trail by 7.

* United have a game in hand. But it’s away. And United have drawn 8 of their 10 away games. That’s 16 dropped points. They have 9 remaining away games, among them Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool. If those are all draws, that’s another 18 points dropped. I hear a door opening.

* City, tied at the top, have played a game more than Chelsea. That’s a potential 3 points. They have away games to United, Chelsea and Everton and a home game to Spurs. That’s another 9 points on offer. Frankly, I’d have to say that of all the candidates, City are the most likely to win the League. But there are opportunities.

* Arsenal are 5 points ahead. Their recent Premier league record is excellent. But they often choke in big games. Still ahead are a rematch with United and away to Tottenham. If those are draws that’s 4 points to be had.

* We’re ignoring Tottenham’s schedule because they’re behind Chelsea and the Blues won’t be dropping any more points this season. (!)

So It’s Possible?

Yes, I’m telling you there’s a chance. Just ask Mr. and Mrs. Jim Carrey.