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Defining match of the season for Chelsea. Three points would mean we retain the second spot for now. One point would mean the gap between us and Liverpool could grow to five. No points could mean Aston Villa are just one point behind us. Three points would also mean Chelsea are back. It would also mean we can still produce a performance when required. It means Scolari can beat a top team dammit! One point would also mean Scolari can’t win a match to save his life. It might also confirm that we may not beat any top team this season after all. No points would also mean that we are only fighting for the fourth place and our real rivals are Aston Villa and Arsenal. It would also confirm all my fears. If Scolari ever wanted to prove his critics wrong, this is the chance. And you know what, this is our first away match of this season against a top 6 team!

Despite their defeat to Derby, I’d say the favourites for this match are Man Utd. I think, for the first time in this season, Chelsea are not favourites to win a match. I don’t remember one creditable performance against a top team all season. Now that Aston Villa is in the fourth spot, Scolari can claim that Chelsea has beaten a top four team but that would be cheeky. That match against Aston Villa was a blinder. Villa didn’t know what hit them. Feels like a distant memory now. Against Man Utd, we appeared to deserve a win but Man Utd gave too much respect to Chelsea and were determined to just hold their lead. Thanks to Sir Alex, we got a point.

The matches against Liverpool and Arsenal were very poor from a Chelsea point of view. We were brushed aside with much ease. We failed to create any decent chances in these two matches. Against Roma at Stadio Olimpico, it was shocking defending plus careless attitude that handed us our heaviest European defeat I can remember. Bordeaux outplayed us for most part of the match but we were lucky to get away with a point in a match where a win would seen us progress and subsequently finish top of the table. Finally against Cluj, when we had to win to confirm our progression, we got a second half goal to finish second in a very easy group in champions league. When a win could have put us on top, we managed to draw against Everton and West Ham. So, this has been our short history of big matches.

If this is what we have done in big matches so far, it’s quite difficult to be optimistic. Man Utd are not flying high either, one might say. In fact, you can find a lot of similarities between Chelsea and Man Utd this season. Between last summer and this one, both teams mostly retained the squad of the last season. Big exception being the signing of a high profile striker in Berbatov and Anelka. Both teams lost their defensive midfielders to long time injury – Owen Hargreaves and Michael Essien. Both teams lost their effective assistant managers – Steve Clarke and Carlos Queiroz. Both teams fared poorly in big matches, with Man Utd losing to both Liverpool and Arsenal, just like we did.

But there is one big difference which could have the telling effect in this season. Chelsea peaked too early while Man Utd have not yet peaked. When a team peaks too early it could be dangerous because it is not too easy to maintain that high standard all through the season. And when you have an ordinary result, it hits the confidence of the players. Man Utd have been pretty consistent with their ordinary results this season. It is Chelsea who set the premier league on fire with their big wins. That’s why Man Utd can have more confidence than us. They can claim that they’re on the rise. While we have to admit that we have fallen form heights of July and August.

How do you think this game will be approached by Phil and Sir Alex? I think both of them would be fine with a draw, which is exactly the result Rafa Benitez would be hoping for! I think Chelsea would play for a draw. Man Utd would start to play for a win and if the scores are level at half time, they could reduce the gear. I’m not sure if Phil has learnt a lesson from our previous meeting against Man Utd but I’m sure Sir Alex would have. In the last match at Stamford Bridge, Man Utd started very strongly and took us by storm in the first 20 minutes. We looked really rattled and conceded in that period. After that Man Utd paid too much respect to Chelsea and tried to hold on to that lead whereas some more attacking play might have given them the privilege of ending Chelsea’s home league record. Chelsea have become rather lazy and lethargic, even more than we were when we played them last. Man Utd might try to hit us before we wake up. Though this time it’s a home match for them, I think they would follow the same tactic.

From Scolari’s point of view, a defeat here would put him under a lot of pressure. I mean, it would put ‘him’ under more pressure than it would do for Chelsea as such. This is a must-win game for Chelsea considering the recent run of disappointing results. Whereas for Scolari, a draw would do. He can live to fight another day. That would surely play into his mind. A win would immensely help his cause but that would also mean he needs to attack, open up and make Chelsea vulnerable for defeat. So I see a conflict of interest here for Scolari. I would be very curious to see whether Chelsea goes for a win or for a draw. He press-talk is all about winning this match.

Daily Mail carries this interview from Scolari on the Sunday match:

They are four points behind but they have two games in hand and they’re not against us. If they were, it would be in our hands but it’s not. We need to win the game because we need to stay in front of them. We have 18 games left, but if you lose against a direct opponent you are in trouble. We need to win. In these games, if you give a chance to your opponents to advance three points it’s difficult to recover. If you draw then OK, you’ve lost two points, but your opponents have also lost two points. If you lose the game it’s difficult. If we want to arrive in the first position we have to play for a win. I need to arrive at the end of the season in first position. But if you say to me, “You will lose every game against Arsenal, Manchester United and Liverpool and will still be first”, then I’ll sign up to that. There are many games we need to win. Until now we’ve not beaten Arsenal, Liverpool or Manchester so this is a good time to win our first game against Manchester. But this is my job. I need to arrive in first position in every competition. If I don’t, the board will say if I have done a good job or not. It’s not a question of pressure. I work hard, I want to win but it’s not just down to me – it’s down to our opponents as well.

That’s where my problem is. He says ‘if you draw then OK’. It is not OK, if you draw. Let draw not be an option please. I know this is against Man Utd at Old Trafford and if you look at this match in isolation, a draw ‘might’ be okay. When look at the significance of the match in the league table and title race, draw should not be an option. Some managers tend to underplay the importance of the match but you’ll see their teams displaying a very different attitude on the pitch. So if it’s such a mind game from Scolari that’s fine but more often that not the team plays to his tune. Here’s Bosingwa saying something similar.

When Chelsea play, we play to win the game, but if we draw away in Manchester it is not bad.

Why is this marked sense of fear or insecurity? Why do we keep preparing ourselves for a draw? If Chelsea and Man Utd are the top two teams in the league with fewer points separating them, a draw in this match would be acceptable. But that’s not the case. By dropping points, we’re letting Liverpool off the hook. With 5 points (assuming a draw) behind Liverpool, we would have to play some very key away matches against Liverpool, Arsenal, Aston Villa and Tottenham. So every single match is very important. He says he’s fine losing every game against the rivals as long as he tops the league. But unfortunately, it’s not just the numbers. There is also this psychology part coming in there. How will the players believe that they can win the title, if they can’t beat their rivals escpecially when they could do it with some consistency in the recent seasons?

Liverpool does look stronger by the day. They certainly are very focussed this time on their results and they seem to take one match at a time. Beating Man Utd at Old Trafford is not so difficult for Chelsea as it is made to look. If we are thinking about a win, we should play very professionally and tactically. We can’t afford those schoolboy errors. I’m happy that at least one player has come to admit our defensive errors and has recognised as an area we need to improve. While Scolari kept saying that we should have scored more with the chances we created, I simply can’t ignore that we lost points because we made defensive errors and not because we didn’t score more. Check what Lampard has to say:

The errors have been very frustrating for everyone involved because we do work on them in training anyway. Sometimes it has been an individual error or a collective one, but it has been very important because we have dominated the last two games and we lost out on a set-piece in the final minute each time. We can’t afford to let that happen against a team of Manchester United’s calibre.

Spot on. Another badly defended set piece and I’m gonna write a letter to Roman.

We have a fully fit team except for Essien and our only able left footed player. I’ve said it a thousand times now. I want Scolari to play 4-4-2 with Drogba and Anelka. You’ve said it. The experts said it. Some players said it. Drogba said it. Anelka said it too. What’s Scolari waiting for? Deco to say that as well? With the set of players, 4-4-2 is what should come naturally to your mind. Scolari’s claim that he won’t play 4-4-2 until he has Malouda back, is just ridiculous. Malouda is Malouda, he is Messi. And it beats me why we should mandatorily have a left footed player for the left midfield position in 4-4-2. Haven’t Lampard, Joe Cole etc played on the left before? I’m sure he wouldn’t play 3-4-3 because a Terry and Carvalho are not available. If he relied on Malouda so much for an optimum formation, I wonder why he let Bridge and Sinclair leave.

Man Utd have always scored at Old Trafford this season. I suppose that would continue. Supposing that, Chelsea would need two goals to win the match. Against a top team such as Man Utd, given Scolari’s personal choices and preferences, I wonder where those two goals would come from. I do have a recipe though. And here it is.

We should play a 4-4-2 diamond. This formation is narrow and does not require genuine wingers. My team would be Cech, Terry, Carvalho, Ashley Cole, Bosingwa, Lampard, Ballack, Joe Cole, Mikel, Anelka and Drogba. JM and AG had lot of success with this formation which is also referred to as 4-1-2-1-2. This would just suit as the width is provided by the full backs. That means no Deco until the final whistle ot just because of his form, he lacks the passion for getting involved in these kind of matches. We need passionate players for the high profile matches.

I can kind of guess what Scolari would come up with. I don’t think he would play his favourite 4-1-4-1 because he can’t then play one of Anelka and Drogba. For a match of this significance, it would be mad to drop Drogba. So I think he would play 4-3-3 and stick Anelka on the left. The team could be Cech, Terry, Carvalho, Ashley Cole, Bosingwa, Mikel, Lampard, Deco, Joe Cole, Anelka and Drogba. I strongly feel that we should have Ballack in the team for this match. If it’s a choice between Ballack and Deco, it’s rather an easy choice. No start for Deco, until he earns it with his sub appearances.

Couple of interesting facts from BBC: Manchester United have conceded more goals (43) and dropped more points (58) to Chelsea than to any other club in the Premier League. Chelsea were the last club to beat United by more than a single goal (29 April 2006). Despite our recent drop in performance levels, I’d still say that we can beat Man Utd at Old Trafford or Moscow or Stadio Olimpico. Stamford Bridge? Well, yes . . erm . . why not? We have a team to beat Man Utd. When we last beat Man Utd this was the team we had: Cech, Ashley Cole, Terry, Carvaho, Ferreira, Joe Cole, Essien, Ballack, Mikel, Drogba and Kalou. That was not only a fantastic result but also a fantastic performance from Chelsea on that occasion. We were missing Lampard as he had to be with his family after his mom’s death. But we had Essien whom we are missing now. We had ‘lowly’ Ferreira and Kalou then while we could have Bosingwa and Anelka. We could have ‘highly’ Deco today to replace Ballack from that team.

Chelsea should go for the win and should get the win. If we go for the win and we happen to lose, hard luck. But to go for a draw would be suicidal. Irrespective of the result, I want Chelsea play a determined, solid game. I want Chelsea to play with spirit and passion. Just like the way we played against them in April. A win on Sunday has the potential to turn the season around for Chelsea. A win could start a winning run for Chelsea. A win could get the self-confidence back. Enough of fooling around. Let’s show them the real Chelsea!

Heart says 1-2. Head says 1-1.

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