We are no longer favourites for this tie and Fenerbahce has given enough reasons to be taken very seriously. While Stamford Bridge won’t be ‘hell’, it would be no where near heaven either. Zico would know that they don’t have to try anything too adventurous. They just need a draw. For Avram Grant, a win with a clean sheet would send Chelsea through.

First though, a catch up on the premier league stuff. I couldn’t really post a decent pre-match and post-match articles for the Man City game. My internet connection screwed me up big time. Meanwhile Man Utd were held by a gritty Boro thanks to Afonso Alves. Against Chelsea, Boro deserved to win but they were unlucky to lose the game. Against Man Utd, they happened to hit the net instead of the bar. We are just three points away and the momentum is with us as Man Utd would be terribly disappointed with the turn of events so far. If Chelsea make any significant progress in the league, it would be a life line for Arsenal too. And you know what, even they would be in with a chance to win the league. It’s all getting really crazy now.

Let’s first cross the champions league hurdle. Fenerbahce will approach this game with enormous confidence. They have beaten us from being a goal behind, that too an own goal scored by them. Deivid’s snide remarks on the current Chelsea is a display of their confidence:

I think Chelsea are a bit adrift right now. They were more compact when coached by Mourinho, they knew exactly what they wanted. Now they’ve lost a bit of prestige and respect. We see that they are not in their best moment and we have to benefit from it. They have the responsibility, they are the millionaire team, the big team. We will go there to play football and, hopefully, come back to Istanbul with the right result.

Well the bad news for Deivid is that the own goal scored by him is going to prove very crucial in deciding who goes to the semi finals. He put it very nicely and precisely. Under JM they knew exactly what they wanted. He just hit it on the head. That’s the best way to put it!

Our team selection should be spot on for this crucial match. Many times before, AG has been listless with his decisions and has still gone unpunished, thanks to his luck and sometimes the opponent’s inability to expliot our created weakness. In this match, I think we need to be flawless, to start with the managerial decisions.

Petr Cech is out due to a freakish training ground injury that has made a facial surgery necessary. Must be really freakish. Should I suspect a foul play by Ten Cate? Another F-word argument and this ending up in landing punches? Anyway, I wsih Petr a speedy recovery. He was just returning to training and he’s gone again. I hope to see him again this season.

I’d stick to my 4-4-2 theory. I want to see both Anelka and Drogba in the starting line up. See, we need to win this match and we need goals. There’s no better way to put the pressure on opposition than to put these two top strikers in the starting eleven. If for some reason Grant thinks these two can’t play together, he should at least put Sheva in there. Sheva was in fine form when he got injured. He has returned to training and he’s even been playing in the reserve games.

Lampard was simply outstanding against Man City. He was a class apart that he simply stood out. He should man the midfield with Ballack, who seems to be kind of falling out with Grant. In Lampard’s absence, we saw Grant falling in love with Ballack but these days, he does not play or even if he plays he get subbed to his disappointment. The other two places should go to Joe Cole and Mikel. Joe Cole would be our key player while Mikel proved in the last match why he should play more often.

This would mean Essien would not start. So be it. There can only be four midfielders in 4-4-2. Tomorrow’s match is one where we simply can’t afford to concede and at the same time would need goals. Mikel has been more effective as the holding midfielder than Essien and hence should start. Lampard, Ballack and Joe Cole are more effective in the midfield with their attacking mind set. Essien is in some kind of identity crisis. He is neither at his defending best nor at his attacking best. Defensively, he is not in the best of form and for attack, we have better options. I don’t want him to play as the right back, when we have specialists. In the previous leg, he did not impress me there and I hope he does not have to counter Roberto Carlos.

Carvalho is expected to play in this match alongside Terry. Ashley Cole should be the natural choice on the left while I’d go for Paulo Ferreira on the right side. Belletti’s last few matches have been little unimpressive and I would not like to see any chinks anywhere in the Chelsea defence tomorrow. Ferreira has tremendous experience of playing in such big matches and on his day can be fantastic proposition. All other things being equal, I’d put him there in the first eleven. Carlo gets a longer run of matches after Cech damaged his face.

My understanding of the first leg is this: Fener gave Chelsea too much respect in the first half. They did not play their natural game. Chelsea did not take advantage of an unusual Fenerbahce. After half time, the real Fener turned up and turned the match upside down while Chelsea were watching the game go beyond their control.

In this leg, I think Fener would start strongly. They would like to score a goal here. An early goal would make their position very sound. They can start dictating the game from there. I expect an eventful first half. Zico would know that we do not want to concede at any cost. As a typical Brazilian, he might employ the ‘attack is the best form of defence’ tactic. If Fener are going to attack us from everywhere, it would put brakes on Chelsea and make them little wary of going forward. If Fener manage to go with an even score by half time, that would be a major boost for them.

Zico surely has both his feet on the ground:

When you look at the number of quality players we have, we are a bit behind Europe’s other top teams. But in terms of having a team spirit, I don’t think we lack anything. No achievement comes without hard work. But, also, faith is a most important factor. I am trying to make my players believe that they can succeed.

Zico knows that Chelsea has better quality players but seems to believe in team spirit, hard work and self belief. Ooh! That’s how he can hit us hard. We have seen this season that whenever Chelsea is faced with strong-willed opponents, Chelsea have struggled. And if the strong-willed opponent happens to be skilled enough, he could even take the points or goals. The latest example was as recent as the Man City match on Saturday. They were all over us, troubled us and outplayed us but did not have the fire power to deliver the knock out punch. As the game progressed, our superior fitness levels and skill levels proved too much for them. But from what I’ve seen and known, Fener is a different animal. They have the desire, hunger and the talent to match their dream.

Player to player, we have a great squad. If both teams are to play to their potential, Fener won’t stand a chance. Will Chelsea play to their potential? They have to. If they don’t they will be in a risk of seeing another elimination. Fener would give their everything. This is the farthest they have come in the champions league and the mere thought of being in the semi final would stir them up. They will be at us, for sure. If there is one thing that Chelsea should capitalise on, that is Fener’s inexperience at this stage. While they’re hyper-motivated to reach the semi finals, they would also be feeling anxious and nervous about the same. Even if Fener were to take the lead, they can still screw it all up. Remember that match between Lyon and Milan a couple of seasons back? Lyon lead until 10 mins to go and Milan hit them back with two goals when they were secretly celebrating their glorious win that never was. A certain Shevchenko scored a blinder to put Lyon to rest then.

Not just that. In Nov 2005, Shevchenko blasted four goals against Fenerbahce, which I think is still a champions league record. In the home leg, he scored a brace. So he has scored 6 goals against Fener in the last two matches he played them. Ironically, Anelka was playing for Fenerbahce then, who is now preferred ahead of Sheva. I badly want to see Shevchenko playing for us again. Would he be in the bench at least?

[video]http://www.dailymotion.com/swf/x48vz6[/video]

Oops! I forgot to mention that Zico was not their manager then. Small difference, isn’t it?

From our side, I don’t want us to play for a 1-0 win. While 1-0 would put us through, to play for this exact result would prove very dangerous. That’s what happened to Arsenal when they played PSV last season. PSV had won their home game. Arsenal were leading 1-0 at Emirates until the 80th minute. Then comes (now, our own) Alex with a towering header to send Arsenal packing in front of their home crowd. If we are playing for a 1-0, it would show. A very sober first half where Chelsea does not want to attack in numbers would show that. If we start with any two of Essien, Mikel and Makelele, that would also show our desire for just a 1-0.

I’d prefer to see Chelsea finish the game in the first half, not leaving anything for the second half. Some lightning quick attacks and some early goals in the first half would be great to see. Want an easy way out? Put Drogba and Anelka upfront and lump it up and don’t feel bad about it. If the game is still in favour of Fener at the beginning of the second half, I’m going to have butterflies in my stomach.

The last time Chelsea lost the first leg in an away match in the knock out stage, we came back roaring at the Bridge to knock our opponents out with a brilliant 4-2 scoreline. Players can watch this video, if they’re short of inspiration.

[video]http://www.dailymotion.com/swf/x282o1[/video]

On Tuesday night, I hope to see a 3-1 for Chelsea. Goodbye Fenerbahce, hope you enjoyed your ride!

P.S: Be there at BC Shout for Chelsea vs Fenerbahce live match chat!